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A divided Republican vote -- some for Moore and some for the GOP write-in -- seems guaranteed to ensure victory for Jones.4) Moore wins, and the Senate GOP tries to expel him.

"If he were to be sworn in, he would immediately be in a process before the Senate Ethics Committee," Majority Leader Mitch Mc Connell said recently. Bob Packwood began in December 1992 and ended with a recommendation to expel Packwood in September 1995.

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But the GOP could, in essence, recognize that the voters of Alabama made a choice, and even if Republicans nationwide viewed it as a calamitously bad choice, Moore is still a senator until the end of his (shortened) term.6) Doug Jones wins.

This is a very real possibility, regardless of what the GOP does.

The Alabama Senate race is shaping up as a catastrophe for the GOP, regardless of how it works out. Here are six scenarios: 1) Moore withdraws from the race. Under that scenario, a Republican write-in candidate would then be able to keep the GOP seat in one of the nation's reddest states. Even if Moore quit today, his name would remain on the Dec. And if Moore stays on the ballot, even after having withdrawn, he will likely still get a lot of votes.So would a GOP write-in be able to defeat Democrat Doug Jones in what would amount to a three-candidate race, with Republicans divided between Moore and the write-in?Unlikely.2) The governor of Alabama changes election day. Kay Ivey has already changed the day of the Senate election once. Robert Bentley, originally scheduled the election to replace former Sen.What would it mean for the Senate's Republican leadership?Just ask how hard it has been for the GOP to pass legislation with a 52-seat majority.

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